Conflict guide
From the 1953 coup to nuclear brinkmanship and Gulf strikes: how seven decades of mistrust turned two one-time partners into permanent adversaries
The United States and Iran are not formally at war, but they are locked in a long, bitter confrontation that now includes missile strikes, proxy clashes and cyberattacks across the Middle East. What began as an alliance built on oil and anti-communism collapsed after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and has since evolved into a shadow war that regularly threatens to spill over into open conflict.
This article traces the history that brought Washington and Tehran to this point, from the 1953 CIA-backed coup and the 444-day hostage crisis to the axis of evil speech, the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) and the current cycle of sanctions, strikes and reprisals. It explains what each side fears, what each side wants, and why neither has been willing, or able, to step back from the brink.
Table of contents
1953-1978
Cold War roots: the 1953 coup and the Shah
The story of US-Iran enmity begins paradoxically with a period of close cooperation. In the early Cold War, Washington saw Iran as a crucial bulwark against Soviet expansion and a key supplier of oil. The turning point came in 1953, when Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh moved to nationalise the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, threatening Western energy interests.
In response, US and British intelligence orchestrated a covert operation to topple Mossadegh and restore full authority to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The coup succeeded, and the Shah's regime became a pillar of US strategy in the Middle East, receiving weapons, economic aid and political backing. But for many Iranians, the 1953 intervention became a symbol of foreign meddling and stolen democracy, a grievance that would fuel anti-American sentiment for decades.
Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the Shah modernised and militarised Iran with US support. American presidents hosted him at the White House, and Washington sold advanced aircraft and weapons systems to Tehran. Officially, the two governments were partners. Under the surface, however, discontent with the Shah's authoritarian rule, inequality and perceived cultural Westernisation was growing.
1979-1981
Revolution, hostage crisis and the birth of the Great Satan
In 1979, mass protests led by a broad coalition of Islamists, leftists and secular opponents forced the Shah to flee Iran. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile and established an Islamic Republic. From the outset, the new leadership framed the United States as the main external enemy, denouncing it as the Great Satan and the architect of Iran's humiliation.
The break became irreversible in November 1979, when radical students seized the US embassy in Tehran and took 52 American diplomats and staff hostage. They demanded the extradition of the Shah, then in the US for medical treatment, and an end to US interference in Iranian affairs. The hostage crisis lasted 444 days, dominating US politics and media, and leading Washington to sever diplomatic relations and impose sanctions that froze Iranian assets.
In January 1981, the hostages were finally released under the Algiers Accords, just minutes after Ronald Reagan's inauguration. But the damage was done: for US public opinion, images of blindfolded hostages and burning flags cemented Iran's image as a hostile, revolutionary state. For Iran's new rulers, defying Washington became a foundational story of the Republic's birth.
1980-2003
Tankers, missiles and the Gulf wars
The 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War pushed the US and Iran into direct but undeclared confrontation. Washington supported Saddam Hussein's Iraq as a counterweight to revolutionary Iran, providing intelligence and facilitating arms sales, while Iran sought to break Iraq's back through mass mobilisation and attacks on Gulf shipping.
In the mid-1980s, the Tanker War saw Iranian and Iraqi forces target oil tankers and merchant ships in the Gulf. The US reflagged Kuwaiti tankers and deployed naval forces to protect them. Clashes culminated in 1988 when the US Navy engaged Iranian vessels and accidentally shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians, a trauma still cited in Iran as evidence of US hostility.
After the Cold War, the US fought two major wars next door in Iraq, in 1991 and 2003, further entrenching its military presence around Iran. From Tehran's perspective, US bases in the Gulf, the invasion of Iraq and talk of regime change after President George W. Bush called Iran part of an axis of evil confirmed fears that Washington ultimately sought to topple the Islamic Republic.
2002-2025
The nuclear file: JCPOA, maximum pressure and brinkmanship
In the 2000s, Iran's nuclear programme became the central issue in US-Iran relations. Washington and its allies accused Tehran of seeking the capability to build nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian programme. Iran insisted its activities were peaceful but refused to halt sensitive enrichment work, leading to UN and US sanctions and a prolonged diplomatic standoff.
After years of negotiations, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was signed in 2015. Iran accepted strict limits on uranium enrichment, intrusive inspections and caps on centrifuges in exchange for sanctions relief. For a brief period, tensions eased: Iran shipped out enriched uranium, dismantled equipment and gained renewed access to oil markets and the global financial system.
In 2018, however, President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA and launched a maximum pressure campaign designed to force Iran back to the table for a broader deal covering missiles and regional activities. Washington re-imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran's oil, banking and shipping sectors, driving the country into deep recession. In response, Iran began breaching JCPOA limits, increasing enrichment levels and stockpiles.
By the mid-2020s, Iran's nuclear advances and US sanctions had created a new crisis: Washington warned that Iran was approaching weapons-related thresholds, while Iran insisted it would not accept further concessions without guarantees that the US would not walk away again. Efforts to revive or replace the JCPOA stalled as other flashpoints, from Ukraine to Gaza, complicated diplomacy.
Regional struggle
Proxies, militias and the regional chessboard
Beyond direct US-Iran contacts, much of the conflict plays out via proxies. Iran has built a network of allied militias and political movements across the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed groups in Iraq and Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and others, forming what it calls the Axis of Resistance.
From Washington's perspective, these groups are instruments of Iranian power projection, used to attack US troops, threaten allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, and destabilise states where the US has interests. American forces in Iraq and Syria have repeatedly come under rocket and drone fire from militias linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, triggering US retaliatory strikes.
This proxy dimension makes de-escalation harder. Even when Washington and Tehran signal a desire to avoid full-scale war, local commanders, militias or third parties can launch attacks that drag both sides into new cycles of retaliation. The killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone in Baghdad in 2020, and Iran's subsequent missile strikes on bases hosting US troops, illustrated how quickly the conflict can jump from covert operations to overt military exchanges.
Military geography
US bases around Iran: encirclement or deterrence?
A key reason Iran sees itself at war with the United States is the map of US military bases that ring its borders. The US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain, Central Command's forward air headquarters sits at Al Udeid in Qatar, and American forces operate from bases in Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
| Location | Key facility | Relevance to Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Bahrain | US Navy Fifth Fleet HQ | Commands US naval forces in the Gulf and Arabian Sea; central to any maritime confrontation with Iran. |
| Qatar | Al Udeid Air Base (CENTCOM forward HQ) | Major hub for US air operations, reconnaissance and logistics across the region, including surveillance of Iran. |
| Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, UAE | Multiple air and land bases | Provide launch points for strikes, support to allies and missile defence around Iran's borders. |
Washington describes this network as a deterrent, intended to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking partners or sprinting toward a bomb. Tehran sees it as encirclement, proof that the US is preparing for coercion or even regime change. This clash of perceptions lies at the heart of why both sides invest so heavily in military signalling around the Gulf.
Security narratives
What Washington fears, what Tehran fears
For US policymakers, Iran represents a combination of risks: potential nuclear breakout, ballistic-missile expansion, support for groups that threaten US troops and allies, and the ability to disrupt oil flows and global markets. Iran's human-rights record and anti-Israel rhetoric add political pressure in Washington to stay tough.
For Iran's leaders, the United States is the pre-eminent external threat: a superpower that toppled governments in the region, invaded Iraq, overthrew Libya's regime and repeatedly talked of all options on the table for Iran itself. The memory of the 1953 coup and decades of sanctions reinforce the belief that Washington ultimately seeks to weaken or replace the Islamic Republic.
Economic pressure
Oil, sanctions and the cost of confrontation
Sanctions are Washington's main non-military weapon. Since the 1980s, and especially after 2010, the US has used its control over the dollar-based financial system to restrict Iran's oil exports, banking and access to technology. These measures have slashed Iran's revenues, pushed inflation and unemployment higher and constrained investment, but they have not produced regime collapse or a fundamental policy reversal.
For the global economy, the risk is that US-Iran tensions escalate into direct attacks on oil facilities or shipping, as seen in previous tanker incidents and strikes on regional infrastructure. Each spike in tension raises insurance costs, introduces price volatility and forces companies to plan for worst-case scenarios such as a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The cost of this shadow war is therefore measured not only in missiles and sanctions, but also in risk premiums built into every barrel of Gulf oil.
Where it leaves both sides
Conclusion: why peace is so hard
The US and Iran are locked in conflict not just because of one issue, but because of layered traumas and incompatible security narratives. 1953, 1979, the hostage crisis, the tanker war, the axis of evil, the nuclear standoff and proxy clashes have created a story on each side in which the other is the primary villain.
Diplomacy, from backchannel talks in Oman to the JCPOA, has shown that compromise is possible. But each time, domestic politics, regional shocks or trust deficits have pulled the two capitals back toward confrontation. As long as Washington fears a nuclear-armed, missile-rich Iran and Tehran fears regime-change pressure from a ring of US bases, the relationship is likely to remain a managed confrontation rather than a genuine peace.
Article information
Article information
Reading time
About 20 minutes
Word count
About 4,000 words
Tags
#USIran #ShadowWar #JCPOA #GulfSecurity #Sanctions #NuclearDeal #FifthFleet #MiddleEast
